Arbor Sensors
Growth scenarios slide with base, upside and downside to 2029
Three forecast lines mean nothing without the assumption that produces each one, which is why the assumptions belong on the slide rather than in the presenter's head. This one runs to 2029 for Arbor Sensors, a fictional maker of water monitoring hardware, from a common starting point of $2.3M.
What is on the slide
- Headline
- Three Ways to 2029, with the subtitle noting revenue in millions and a common start of $2.3M.
- Base path
- $2.3M, $3.4M, $5.0M, $6.9M, $9.0M, holding the current 40% growth with no new market.
- Upside path
- $2.3M, $3.9M, $6.5M, $9.8M, $14.0M, which needs the water utility contract to land in 2027.
- Downside path
- $2.3M, $2.9M, $3.6M, $4.5M, $5.5M, assuming the grant ends and sensor lead times double.
- Takeaway panel
- Four rows: the endpoint of each path and the note that every path clears the debt covenant above $5M.
When this is the right slide
Scenario lines are right when the spread between outcomes is the decision, and when each path can be tied to one assumption the audience can accept or reject.
What to swap it for
Metrics: Line Chart Growth Trajectory. Swap to the single trajectory layout when the plan has one forecast and the meeting is about the plan rather than about the range around it.
What this slide shows
A narrow brand coloured rail runs down the left of the canvas carrying a single icon. The headline reads Three Ways to 2029 with a subtitle stating that revenue is in millions and that every path starts from $2.3M. The chart occupies the centre: five year categories from 2025 to 2029, a vertical axis in millions, and three lines that begin together and fan out. Base rises to $9.0M, upside to $14.0M and downside to $5.5M, each with a point marker at every year and a legend under the plot. To the right, a panel headed Key Takeaway holds four rows, each with an icon, a sentence and a figure: the base endpoint, the upside endpoint, the downside endpoint, and the covenant note. Because the three series take theme colours rather than a traffic light palette, no path is coded as good or bad before the audience has decided which one they believe.
Who this slide is for and when to use it
Board meetings about funding, investor conversations about risk, and planning sessions where the question is how much room the business has. The audience is being asked to accept a range rather than a number, which is a different request from a budget approval. That makes it the wrong slide for a target setting meeting, where three paths give a team three answers and no commitment. It is also the wrong slide when the assumptions are not genuinely separable. If every path depends on the same contract, there is one scenario with a timing risk, and the honest version is a single line with the timing question named beside it.
How to adapt it
First, make the paths differ by one variable each where you can, because a scenario built from five simultaneous changes cannot be argued with productively. Second, extend or shorten the horizon to match the decision rather than the model. A five year fan supports a financing decision; a two year fan supports a hiring plan, and the same layout takes both. Third, replace the endpoint figures in the panel with the metric the audience actually manages. For a subscription business that might be ending ARR, for a clinic it might be patients treated, and the chart behind it does not have to change. If the meeting only needs one path, the single trajectory layout gives the line more room and avoids implying a range the company has not modelled properly.
What makes this slide work
Every line has one assumption attached
Upside is not optimism, it is the water utility contract landing in 2027. Downside is the grant ending and lead times doubling. A reader can accept or reject each path by arguing with one fact, which is a shorter conversation than arguing with a curve and a great deal shorter than arguing with a spreadsheet.
All three start from the same point
Every path begins at $2.3M in 2025, so the fan opens from a single known figure rather than from three different starting assumptions. That makes the spread itself readable: by 2029 the gap between downside and upside is $8.5M, which is the number the financing conversation is actually about.
The panel closes on a constraint, not a wish
The fourth row says every path clears the debt covenant above $5M, which turns a forecast into a decision. It is the one line on the slide that a board can act on immediately, and it is only credible because the downside path is drawn on the same axes and visibly ends above that threshold.
Questions people ask
How many scenarios should a slide show?
Three. Base, upside and downside is enough to establish a range and few enough that each line can carry an assumption. Two scenarios read as a choice between two plans, and four or more turn into a spaghetti chart where the audience stops tracking which line belongs to which set of assumptions.
Where should the assumptions go?
On the slide, next to the chart, one per path. This slide puts them in a panel with the endpoint figure. Assumptions kept in the presenter's head produce the same meeting every time: someone asks what upside depends on, and the answer arrives as an unprepared sentence rather than as something the room can read and weigh.
Should the downside be a real downside?
Yes. A downside that still shows healthy growth is a second base case and it costs the whole slide its credibility. Here the downside assumes a grant ends and lead times double, which produces $5.5M by 2029, well below base. If your worst case is comfortable, you have not modelled the thing the board is worried about.
Should the lines be colour coded green, amber and red?
Better not to. Traffic light colours tell the audience what to think before they have read the assumptions, and they carry poorly for readers with colour vision deficiency. Using theme colours keeps the lines distinguishable while leaving the judgement to the panel text, where it can be stated in words.
How far out should a scenario chart run?
As far as the decision, and no further. Five years suits a financing or capacity decision. Beyond that the assumptions compound and the fan becomes so wide that it says only that the future is uncertain. A shorter horizon with tighter assumptions is almost always more useful than a longer one with looser ones.
Can this layout show a metric other than revenue?
Yes. Any single measure with three plausible paths works: headcount, units shipped, patients treated or cash balance. The chart takes three series across up to eight time buckets. What has to change is the subtitle, which names the unit, and the panel figures, which should be in that same unit rather than converted to dollars.
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