Kibblewick: Business Case for a Sydney Warehouse

Business case presentation: options, costs, benefits, ask

A business case presentation has to prove to a board that the problem is real, that the recommended option beats the alternatives on the numbers, and when the money comes back. Kibblewick, an invented online pet supplies retailer in Brisbane, asks for $2.4M and a five year lease to open a Sydney warehouse, compares it with outsourcing and doing nothing in Sydney, and shows breakeven in year four.

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KIBBLEWICK

Business case · Board meeting, 18 March 2027

A second warehouse in western Sydney

$2.4M to fit out, a five year lease, and $1.2M net cash back within five years.

Chief operating officer

With the CFO and head of customer experience

For decision

Slide 1 · cover · States the investment and the recommendation up front, because the board reads the cover first.

THE PROBLEM

One warehouse

Kibblewick sells pet food and supplies online to 64,000 active customers, and ships every order from one warehouse in Brisbane. Customers in New South Wales are now 38 percent of orders, but their parcels travel 900 kilometres, arrive in two to four days and cost an average of $4.10 more to deliver than a Brisbane order. Customer surveys name delivery speed as the first reason for leaving, and repeat purchase in New South Wales is eleven points lower than in Queensland.

38%
Of orders go to NSW

About 318,000 orders a year, up from 29 percent two years ago.

+$4
Freight per NSW order

$4.10 more than a Brisbane order, about $1.3M a year on 318,000 orders.

02

Slide 2 · intro · The problem the investment solves, in the numbers that cost the business money today.

Three options

Each option was costed over five years. Option A is recommended.

A: Own site

Preferred

Lease and fit out 4,000 sqm in Sydney

What it gives

Next day delivery to 85 percent of NSW customers, all freight savings, full control of stock and service.

What it costs

$2.4M up front and a five year lease at $650K a year.

Five year net

Plus $1.2M, breaking even in year four.

Recommended

B: Outsource

Lower risk

A third party warehouse ships NSW orders

What it gives

Faster NSW delivery for $0.3M of set up cost, and an easy exit if volumes fall.

What it costs

About $2.1M a year in handling fees and less control of packing quality.

Five year net

Plus $0.3M, breaking even in year five.

Fallback option

C: Grow Brisbane

No change

Add a second shift and racking in Brisbane

What it gives

More capacity for Queensland growth at a low cost of about $0.4M.

What it costs

No change to NSW delivery times or freight, which is the problem.

Five year net

Does not address the NSW problem.

Rejected

03

Slide 3 · comparison · Three options compared side by side, including doing more in Brisbane, so the choice is visible.

OPTION A, $K

Costs and benefits over five years

Line
Year 0
Year 1
Years 2 to 5
Five year total
Fit out and equipment
-2,400
0
0
-2,400
Warehouse lease
0
-650
-650 a year
-3,250
Staff and running costs
0
-850
-850 a year
-4,250
Freight savings
0
1,300
1,300 a year
6,500
Margin on extra NSW sales
0
500
800, 1,000, 1,100, 1,200
4,600
Net cash flow
-2,400
300
600, 800, 900, 1,000
1,200
Undiscounted. Extra sales assume NSW repeat purchase closes half its gap with Queensland by year three.

04

Slide 4 · metrics · Costs and benefits of the recommended option over five years, line by line, in thousands of dollars.

Cumulative cash flow, $K

Option A breaks even during year four and ends year five at $1,200K. Option B breaks even in year five at $300K.

Start
Yr 1
Yr 2
Yr 3
Yr 4
Yr 5
-2400-1200012002400
Own site
Outsource

05

Slide 5 · metrics · Cumulative cash flow for the two real options, showing where each breaks even.

The case in four numbers

Option A, five years, undiscounted unless stated.

$2.4M

Up front investment

Racking, conveyors, chillers for fresh food and the fit out, funded from cash and a $1.5M equipment loan.

3.8 yrs

Payback

Cumulative cash turns positive during year four, at about 3.8 years.

$1.2M

Five year net cash

After the fit out, lease, staff and running costs, against $0.3M for outsourcing.

$0.2M

Net present value

At a 10 percent discount rate over five years. Positive, but sensitive to the sales assumption.

06

Slide 6 · metrics · The four numbers the decision rests on, in the order a board asks for them.

Risks and responses

Five risks to the business case, placed by likelihood and impact.

Low
Likelihood
High
High
Impact
Low
Monitor
  • •
    Lease costs rise at review
  • •
    Key supplier stops NSW deliveries
Mitigate now
  • •
    Extra NSW sales slower than planned
Accept
  • •
    Short fit out delays
Prepare
  • •
    Hiring 22 staff in western Sydney

07

Slide 7 · framework · The risks on a likelihood and impact grid, each with the response, so the board sees what could go wrong.

From approval to first parcel

1

April: sign the lease

Lease signed on a 4,000 square metre site with a break clause at year three.

April 2027

2

May to Aug: fit out

Racking, conveyors and chillers installed. Warehouse system copied from Brisbane.

May to Aug 2027

3

Jul to Aug: hire and train

22 staff hired and trained for four weeks, half of them in Brisbane.

July to Aug 2027

4

September: first orders

Sydney orders switch over by postcode across three weeks, Brisbane as backup.

September 2027

08

Slide 8 · timeline · How the warehouse gets from approval to its first parcel, in four dated stages.

What has to be true

Five conditions, each reported to the board every quarter for the first two years.

Freight falls by $4.10 an order

Measured on NSW orders from the first full quarter. Below $3.00 a saving triggers a review.

NSW repeat purchase rises

Half the gap with Queensland closed by year three, worth about $1.0M of margin a year.

22 staff hired by August

Including a site manager with cold chain experience, before any orders switch over.

Fresh food stays in range

Chiller logs audited weekly, as fresh lines are 20 percent of NSW orders.

A break clause at year three

If sales miss plan by more than 30 percent, the lease can end with six months notice.

09

Slide 9 · checklist · The conditions the recommendation depends on, which become the measures reported after go live.

We recommend Option A

Approve $2.4M of capital and a five year lease at $650K a year, with a year three break clause, so NSW orders ship from Sydney from September 2027.

10

Slide 10 · closing · Closes on the recommendation and the exact decision the board is asked to make.

The structure

What each slide is doing, so you can reuse the order even with different content.

Slide 1cover
States the investment and the recommendation up front, because the board reads the cover first.
Slide 2intro
The problem the investment solves, in the numbers that cost the business money today.
Slide 3comparison
Three options compared side by side, including doing more in Brisbane, so the choice is visible.
Slide 4metrics
Costs and benefits of the recommended option over five years, line by line, in thousands of dollars.
Slide 5metrics
Cumulative cash flow for the two real options, showing where each breaks even.
Slide 6metrics
The four numbers the decision rests on, in the order a board asks for them.
Slide 7framework
The risks on a likelihood and impact grid, each with the response, so the board sees what could go wrong.
Slide 8timeline
How the warehouse gets from approval to its first parcel, in four dated stages.
Slide 9checklist
The conditions the recommendation depends on, which become the measures reported after go live.
Slide 10closing
Closes on the recommendation and the exact decision the board is asked to make.

Slide by slide

Slide one states the investment and the five year return. Slide two sets out the problem. Slide three compares three options: own warehouse, outsource and grow Brisbane. Slide four is the five year table for the recommended option, netting to $1,200K. Slide five charts cumulative cash flow for the two real options. Slide six gives four headline numbers. Slide seven places five risks on a likelihood and impact grid. Slide eight shows the path from signing the lease in April to the first Sydney orders in September 2027. Slide nine lists five conditions to report on, including a year three break clause. Slide ten states the recommendation and the exact decision.

How to adapt this deck

A business case for software or a system replacement should swap the warehouse lines for licences, implementation and staff time saved, and add a slide on what happens to the old system. A case going to a lender rather than a board should add a cash flow by month for the first year, since lenders care most about the period before benefits arrive. If the options are close on the numbers, add a weighted scoring slide for the things money does not capture, such as control or customer experience.

What business case guidance says

The NSW Government Business Case Guidelines set out when a business case is needed and what it should contain, scaled to the size and risk of the proposal. HM Treasury's Green Book describes appraisal as assessing the costs, benefits and risks of different options for achieving an objective. Both start from a clear problem and a genuine comparison of options, which is the shape this deck follows before it reaches the recommendation.

What makes this deck work

The problem is priced first

Slide two puts the cost of doing nothing in numbers: 38 percent of orders, about 318,000 a year, go to New South Wales at $4.10 more freight each, about $1.3M a year. That $1.3M reappears as the freight saving line in the table on slide four, so the benefit traces back to the problem.

Two options share one chart

The line chart on slide five plots cumulative cash for owning the warehouse and for outsourcing. Owning starts $2.4M down and ends year five at $1,200K; outsourcing starts shallower but ends at $300K. The board sees the trade between early risk and later return in one picture.

Every headline number can be checked

Slide six gives payback of 3.8 years: cumulative cash is minus $700K at the end of year three and year four adds $900K. Net present value at 10 percent is $0.2M, and the slide says it is sensitive to the sales assumption, which the conditions on slide nine then track.

Questions people ask

What goes in a business case presentation?

The problem and its cost, the options considered including doing nothing, costs and benefits over a defined period, cash flow to breakeven, headline measures such as payback and net present value, risks, the delivery plan, conditions to monitor and the recommendation. Ten slides is enough for a board.

How many options should a business case compare?

Usually three: the recommended option, a credible alternative and the do nothing or minimum change option. Fewer looks like the answer was chosen first; more makes the comparison hard to follow. Cost each one over the same period so the numbers compare like with like.

How do I show breakeven in a business case presentation?

Plot cumulative net cash flow by year, starting from the up front investment, and show where the line crosses zero. Put the payback period in the description. Showing a second option on the same chart lets the board compare early risk and later return at a glance.

Should a business case include net present value?

Include it for any investment over several years, and state the discount rate. Show the undiscounted total too, because many board members think in cash. If net present value is small relative to the investment, say which assumption it depends on most.

How do I present risks in a business case?

Place them on a likelihood and impact grid with a response for each group, and link the biggest ones to conditions you will report on. A break clause or staged commitment, like the year three lease break here, shows the board how the downside is limited.

Can finance edit the cash flow chart in PowerPoint?

Yes. The editable PPTX export turns line and bar charts into native PowerPoint charts with their data, so finance can change the values directly. Tables become native tables too. PowerPoint exports are on paid plans, while a PDF export of the whole deck costs about 1 credit per 10 slides.

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Sources

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