Census comparison, 40 local government areas, two releases

Demography research poster example

Median age change across forty regional local government areas, laid out as an A0 landscape board with a ribbon of four numbers running across the middle. The ribbon holds the result and the columns above and below explain why one number hides two different mechanisms.

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The whole board

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TU
Ageing faster than the state: median age change in forty regional local government areas
Y. Castellanos ¹, O. Brandt ¹
1 Centre for Population Studies, Thornbury University
Abstract
Regional ageing is usually reported as a single average, which hides the fact that it is driven by two different mechanisms in two different kinds of place. We compared median age and population structure across all forty non metropolitan local government areas in one state between two census releases five years apart. Median age rose 2.9 years across the forty, against 1.4 years for the state as a whole, and 31 of the forty aged faster than the state. Six areas lost population outright, by between 1.1% and 4.8%. The coastal areas aged because older people arrived; the inland ones aged because younger people left, and the two produce the same median with very different age pyramids underneath.
Two mechanisms, one number
A median age is a poor summary of a population because two opposite flows move it the same way. An area that gains retirees ages at the top of its pyramid and usually grows. An area that loses school leavers ages in the middle and usually shrinks. Reported as a single rise in median age they are indistinguishable, and the services that follow the number are the same for both, which is how a growing coastal shire and a shrinking inland one end up in the same funding category. This analysis separates the two by reading the change in each five year cohort rather than the change in the median, and it finds the split runs almost exactly along the coast and inland boundary rather than along the size of the area.
METHODS
Units. All 40 non metropolitan local government areas in one state, boundaries held constant.
Source. Two census releases five years apart, usual residence counts by five year age group.
Measures. Median age, total population change, and the change in each five year cohort share.
Grouping. Coastal (18 areas) or inland (22), defined by whether the area has a coastline.
Limits. Census counts only; no internal migration flows, so direction is inferred from cohorts.
40
regional local government areas
Every non metropolitan area in one state, two census releases
2.9 years
median age rise across the forty
Against 1.4 years for the state as a whole over the same period
31 of 40
aged faster than the state
Only nine areas kept pace with or beat the state figure
6
areas lost population outright
Falls of 1.1% to 4.8% over five years, all inland
2021
2026
Coast
Inland
015304560
Figure 1. Median age at the two census releases, coastal and inland areas.
Source: two census releases, 40 regional local government areas.
Results
Coastal areas rose 2.5 years on average and inland areas 3.2, which weighted by their 18 and 22 areas gives the headline 2.9. The six areas that lost population are all inland: Marrandah down 4.8%, Pellworth 3.6%, Cobbin Creek 2.9%, Yarrandale 2.4%, Hesket Plains 1.8% and Dorrigan 1.1%. Every one of the six also lost more than a fifth of its residents aged 20 to 34. The nine areas that kept pace with the state are a mixed group: four are coastal shires with a university or a hospital, three are inland towns on a commuter line, and two are irrigation districts that gained working age arrivals with a new processing plant. Size explains nothing. The largest area in the set aged 3.1 years and the smallest 2.8.
Why the split matters
On the coast the 65 and over share rose 4.1 points while the 20 to 34 share held steady, which is arrival. Inland the 20 to 34 share fell 3.6 points while the 65 and over share rose only 1.9, which is departure. Planning that reads only the median treats both as a demand for aged care; only one of them is. The inland pattern is a demand for schools that will not be needed in ten years, for a workforce that is not there now, and for the transport that would let a school leaver stay. Reporting the two mechanisms separately costs nothing, because both are already in the census tables that produce the median, and it changes which of the forty areas a funding formula should be pointed at.
Conclusion
Regional median age rose 2.9 years against 1.4 for the state, and 31 of the 40 areas aged faster than the state. The number hides two mechanisms: coastal areas aged by gaining people over 65, inland areas by losing people aged 20 to 34, and six inland areas shrank outright. Splitting the two mechanisms is free: the cohort shares that show it are in the same census tables the median comes from.
Median age up 2.9 years, against 1.4 for the state
31 of 40 areas aged faster than the state
Coastal ageing is arrival, inland ageing is departure
Six inland areas lost 1.1% to 4.8% of their population
REFERENCES
1.Brandt, O. (2025) Cohort share change as a substitute for migration data. Population Research Letters, 14(1), 30 to 52.
2.Iwuchukwu, N. and Castellanos, Y. (2024) The median age problem in regional planning. Journal of Regional Demography, 37(4), 402 to 428.
3.Sandoval, T. (2026) Six shrinking shires: a cohort account. Thornbury Population Papers 2026-03.

Block by block

What each block on the board is for, in the order a reader walks it.

Title band, two authors and a QR code
The title names the finding and the unit: ageing faster than the state, median age change in forty regional local government areas. Two authors share one centre affiliation, with the QR code at the right of the band.
Abstract
Regional ageing is usually reported as one average, which hides two different mechanisms. Median age rose 2.9 years across the forty areas against 1.4 for the state, 31 of the forty aged faster than the state, and six lost population outright.
Two mechanisms, one number
An area that gains retirees ages at the top of its pyramid and usually grows. An area that loses school leavers ages in the middle and usually shrinks. Reported as one rise in median age they are indistinguishable, and the services that follow the number are the same for both.
Methods as a labelled protocol
Five entries: all 40 non metropolitan areas with boundaries held constant, two census releases five years apart by five year age group, median age and cohort share change as the measures, a coastal and inland split of 18 and 22, and the limit that census counts cannot show migration flows.
The four number ribbon
Forty regional local government areas; a 2.9 year median age rise against 1.4 for the state; 31 of 40 ageing faster than the state; and six areas that lost population outright, by 1.1% to 4.8%, all of them inland.
Figure and results
A grouped bar chart gives median age at both census releases for coastal and inland areas, 42.1 to 44.6 and 44.8 to 48.0. The results block names the six shrinking areas with their falls and notes that each lost over a fifth of its residents aged 20 to 34.
Why the split matters, and references
On the coast the 65 and over share rose 4.1 points with the 20 to 34 share steady; inland the 20 to 34 share fell 3.6 points. Planning that reads only the median treats both as aged care demand. Four checked points and three references close the board.

What makes this board work

The ribbon carries the whole result

Forty areas, 2.9 years, 31 of 40 and six shrinking areas, each with a detail line giving the comparison or the range. A reader crossing the room in front of this board still leaves with the finding.

The board separates two mechanisms

Coastal areas aged 2.5 years by gaining people over 65; inland areas aged 3.2 by losing people aged 20 to 34. Reported as one median they are indistinguishable, and the whole argument of the poster is that the distinction changes what a funding formula should do.

Six shrinking areas are named

Marrandah down 4.8% through to Dorrigan at 1.1%, with the note that every one of the six lost more than a fifth of its residents aged 20 to 34. Naming them is what turns a distributional claim into something a reader can check.

Questions people ask

What goes on a demography research poster?

The units and how they were defined, the source releases and their dates, the measures, the headline change against a benchmark, and the distribution behind the average. Census work should state whether boundaries were held constant, because a boundary change can produce the whole result.

How do I show a distribution on a poster?

Name the tail. This board gives the four number ribbon for the aggregate and then lists the six areas that lost population with their percentage falls. A box plot at A0 read from a metre conveys less than six named places with six numbers beside them.

Is a stat ribbon better than a table?

For four numbers, yes. A ribbon gives each figure its own block with room for the denominator underneath, and it reads from across the room rather than from a metre away. Once you have more than four measures, or you need two columns compared side by side, a table is the better block.

What text size does an A0 landscape poster need?

Body text here sits near 24 pixels on the 2340 by 1656 working canvas, which prints at about 12 millimetres and is readable at a metre. The ribbon figures run several times that size, which is what lets them do their job from further away, and the detail line under each one can safely sit smaller.

How many words should a demography poster carry?

This board runs a little over 2,000 words across abstract, introduction, methods, results, discussion and conclusion, and every block is full. Fill the blocks your layout gives you. A half empty block reads as an unfinished analysis rather than a concise one.

Can I change the number of blocks in the ribbon?

The ribbon on this design holds four, and each is a separate component you can retype or delete. Deleting one leaves a gap rather than reflowing the other three, so if you only have three numbers it is usually better to choose a layout built for three.

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