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What sample size do I need for a survey?
Sample size is the number of completed responses a survey needs so its results land within a chosen margin of error at a chosen confidence level. For a large population at 95 percent confidence and a margin of 5 points, that is 385 completed responses; a small population needs fewer, and a tighter margin needs many more.
Most surveys either collect far more answers than the decision needs or far fewer than the conclusions drawn from them. Working out the number before sending anything tells you how many people to invite and which comparisons the results can honestly support.
Nuwan Madhusanka · Co-founder
5 min read · Published
| Confidence and margin | Population of 500 | Population of 2,000 | Very large population |
|---|---|---|---|
| 90% confidence, 5 point margin | 176 | 239 | 271 |
| 95% confidence, 5 point margin | 218 | 323 | 385 |
| 99% confidence, 5 point margin | 286 | 499 | 664 |
| 90% confidence, 3 point margin | 301 | 547 | 752 |
| 95% confidence, 3 point margin | 341 | 697 | 1,068 |
| 99% confidence, 3 point margin | 394 | 960 | 1,844 |
- 1
Define the population
Write down exactly who the results should describe, such as ticket holders for this year's festival, and count them. The count only matters much when it is small.
- 2
Choose a margin of error
Decide how far from the true figure a result can sit and still support the decision. Plus or minus 5 points is a common starting point; 3 points suits higher stakes.
- 3
Choose a confidence level
Pick 95 percent unless there is a reason not to. Use 90 percent for exploratory work and 99 percent when a wrong call would be expensive.
- 4
Calculate the base number
Multiply the squared z score (1.645 for 90, 1.96 for 95, 2.576 for 99 percent) by 0.25, divide by the squared margin as a decimal, and round up.
- 5
Adjust for a small population
Divide the base number by one plus (the base number minus one) divided by the population size. For 385 and a population of 2,000, the answer is 323.
- 6
Convert completes into invitations
Divide the completed responses you need by the response rate you expect. At a 20 percent rate, 323 completes means inviting about 1,615 people.
Why 385 keeps appearing
Almost every sample size calculator returns 385 for the default settings, and the reason is arithmetic rather than convention. The formula multiplies the squared z score for the confidence level by the variability of the answer, then divides by the squared margin. At 95 percent confidence the z score is 1.96. The variability of a yes or no answer is largest when the true split is fifty fifty, which gives 0.25, so planning around it is the cautious choice. The margin of 5 points becomes 0.05, squared to 0.0025. That comes to 384.16, rounded up to 385. Notice that the population size does not appear at all. Once a population is large, adding more people to it barely changes the answer, which is why a national poll and a survey of a large city need roughly the same number of completed responses.
Subgroups are where the plan usually breaks
The margin of error in a report applies to the whole sample. The moment results are split, each slice carries its own, larger margin. Pew Research Center's explainer uses a national sample of 1,067 with a margin of 3 points, then shows that a subgroup of around 160 people carries a margin of about 8 points on the same question. A business survey hits the same wall faster. A festival survey with 385 responses sounds solid, but if the plan is to compare Friday, Saturday and Sunday and only 60 people came on Friday, the Friday figure has a margin of roughly 12.7 points at 95 percent confidence. Decide which comparisons the report will make before choosing the number, and size the survey around the smallest group that has to be read on its own.
Completed responses, not people invited
Every figure in the table is a count of finished, usable responses. The invitation list has to be larger by whatever share of people you expect to take part, which is the last step above. A realistic expected rate comes from your own previous surveys to the same audience rather than a published benchmark. Sending more invitations to reach the target is fine; lowering the bar on who counts as a response is not. Be careful about treating a larger list as a cure for a low rate, too. Inviting three times as many people gets you the number, but if the people who answer differ from those who do not, the extra responses make the result more precise without making it more accurate. That is a separate problem, and no sample size calculation touches it.
When the formula does not apply
The calculation assumes that the people who answered were drawn at random from the population, so that every member had a known chance of being included. A link shared on social media, a survey open to whoever visits a page, or a mailing list made up of whoever chose to sign up does not meet that assumption, and a margin of error calculated for it has no real meaning. In those cases the honest move is to report how many people answered and how they were recruited. At the other extreme, a population of a few dozen people is not worth sampling at all. Ask everybody, treat it as a census, and report counts, because the adjustment for small populations quickly shows that you would need most of them anyway.
Tracking the target in a form
Each submission is one row in the responses table, so progress towards the target is a count of rows. If results will be split by a group, ask that group as a single dropdown or radio question near the start, because each field becomes its own column in the CSV export and the option labels are written out as people saw them. That makes checking the size of each subgroup a simple filter while the survey is still open, early enough to send a targeted reminder. Test the form with the demo link, which keeps it working but records nothing, so test submissions never sit in the count.
Questions people ask
What if I expect the result to be far from 50 percent?
Then fewer responses are needed for the same margin, because variability is lower. If a similar survey last time found about 20 percent saying yes, the base number at 95 percent confidence and a 5 point margin is 246 rather than 385. Planning around 50 percent is still the safe choice when you have no earlier result.
Can I just use an online sample size calculator?
Yes. The calculators from survey platforms use the same formula as the steps above, and they are quicker. The value of knowing the arithmetic is checking the inputs: the population, the margin as a whole number of points, and the confidence level. A calculator given the wrong population or a margin in the wrong unit returns a confident, wrong number.
Is a sample of 100 responses useless?
No, but it is imprecise. At 95 percent confidence a result from 100 responses carries a margin of about 9.8 points, which is enough to see a strong majority or a clear problem and not enough to detect a change of a few points. Use a small sample for direction and avoid reporting decimals from it.
How many responses do I need to compare two groups?
More than for one overall figure, because the uncertainty in each group adds to the uncertainty in the gap between them. Pew notes that the margin for the difference between two candidates is about twice the margin for one candidate. Plan so each group has enough responses on its own, then test the difference directly.
Does sample size apply to open questions?
Not in the same way. The formula is for proportions and averages. Open answers are read for themes, and the usual guide is to keep reading until new responses stop producing new themes. A few dozen thoughtful answers often cover most of what a larger set would say, although rare but important issues need more.
Should I stop the survey once I hit the target?
Decide the closing date in advance and keep it, rather than stopping the moment the count is reached. Early responders can differ from later ones, and closing at the first opportunity locks in the most eager group. If the target is reached early, let the planned reminder go out anyway so later responders are represented.
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Create a form with OneCraftRelated questions
- What is margin of error?What is margin of error? The range a survey result is likely to sit within, how it is calculated at 95 percent confidence, and a table by sample size.
- Confidence level vs confidence intervalConfidence level vs confidence interval: the level is how often the method captures the true value, the interval is the range. A worked survey example.
- What is a representative sample?What is a representative sample? One that mirrors the population on the traits that shape the answers. Random, stratified, convenience and quota compared.
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